Sadly, active shooter incidents have become more frequent in the United States. In their wake, these violent events leave communities and law enforcement agencies grappling to make sense of them. Though compiling and reporting data on active shooter incidents is critical, there is often a lack of consistency and clarity. In this article, we’ll take a closer look at why this is the case and its implications for our understanding of this pressing issue.

“Apples to Oranges”

Active shooter statistics can be difficult to rely on due to various factors. One of the primary reasons is the lack of a standardized term for these types of violent attacks. For instance, various organizations use different terms such as “active shooter incidents,” “mass shootings,” “mass attacks,” and “mass killings.”

Not only are the terms different, but the definitions vary as well, leading to inconsistent statistics across the board. Additionally, not all attacks are reported or recorded in the same way, which can also lead to discrepancies in the data. Another factor that can contribute to inconsistencies is the changing nature of the events themselves. As attacks continue to occur, the tactics, motivations, and circumstances surrounding them may evolve, making it difficult to compare data over time.

In December of 2023, the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) released a report titled “Special Report: Public Mass Shootings Research.” NIJ reported findings from over 60 publications on 18 government-supported research projects.  The report highlighted how the lack of consistency results in significant challenges when tracking these types of violent events. “Criminal justice agencies and the research community do not agree on a standard definition of the term ‘mass shooting,’ including public mass shootings. This creates an apples-to-oranges problem that further complicates the search for scientific answers.” (NIJ 2023)

Despite these challenges, it’s important to continue striving for accurate and comprehensive reporting of active shooter incidents in order to better understand this complex issue and work towards effective solutions.

Read on as we investigate three terms and how they are defined by the FBI, Secret Service, and the Gun Violence Archive.

Federal Bureau of Investigation (“Active Shooter Incident”)

Following the tragic shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in 2012, the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) established a task force dedicated to examining active shooter incidents. The team’s objective was to gather data that would aid in the prevention, preparation, response, and recovery from these types of attacks. In 2014, the FBI published their inaugural study, entitled “A Study of Active Shooter Incidents in the United States between 2000 and 2013.” Since the initial report, the FBI continues to monitor ASIs and produce annual reports.

The FBI defines an “Active Shooter Incident” (ASI) as “one or more individuals actively engaged in killing or attempting to kill people in a populated area.” Interestingly, the term “active shooter” is also used to describe the manner in which law enforcement and the public respond. The FBI elaborates, “The active aspect of the definition inherently implies the ongoing nature of an incident and thus the potential for a response to affect the outcome.”

The FBI does not consider attacks where the shooter’s actions were a result of another criminal act, such as gang or drug violence. “Contained residential or domestic disputes” are also eliminated from their data.

Unlike the Secret Service and Gun Violence Archive, casualties are not a requirement for inclusion. For example, there were no reported casualties in nine of the 50 attacks documented within the FBI’s 2022 report.

Are the FBI’s “Active Shooter Incidents” increasing over time? Yes. The FBI’s records date back to the year 2000, in which only three attacks were reported. In 2022 there were 50 attacks. This translates into a remarkable increase of 1,567% over 23 years. When looking at the past five years (2018-2022), attacks increased by 67%. (FBI 2021a, 2021b, 2022, 2023)

Secret Service (“Mass Attack”)

The United States Secret Service (USSS) National Threat Assessment Center (NTAC) released their first report documenting Mass Attacks in 2018. Although the FBI and Secret Service’s data frequently overlaps, one difference is that the Secret Service tracks incidents where the assailant used any weapon, not just firearms. Other weapons include bladed weapons, fire (arson), vehicles, and explosives. The Secret Service also differs from the FBI in that they have a casualty threshold of three, whereas casualties are not part of criteria for inclusion within the FBI’s data. The USSS defines a “Mass Attack” as “three or more persons, not including the perpetrator, were harmed during a targeted attack in a public or semi-public space.”

Are the Secret Service’s “Mass Attacks” increasing over time? Yes. The Secret Service has only been tracking these events since 2016. Since that time, there has been an increase of 33%. (USSS 2023)

Gun Violence Archive (“Mass Shooting”)

Aside from the government, other organizations track the number of mass shootings. Data from the Gun Violence Archive (GVA) is often used as a source of data by media outlets while reporting gun-related incidents.

GVA, a not-for-profit organization founded in 2013, defines a “Mass Shooting” as “four or more shot and/or killed in a single event [incident], at the same general time and location, not including the shooter.”

Data published by GVA consistently shows a significantly higher rate of violence than reported by the FBI and USSS. For example, in 2020 GVA reported an astounding 610 mass shootings. The FBI and USSS reported only 40 incidents during this same time frame.

So why the enormous difference in data? The FBI and Secret Service exclude incidents of criminal nature such as gang-on-gang and drug violence within their data, whereas the GVA uses “a purely statistical threshold to define mass shooting based ONLY on the numeric value of 4 or more shot or killed, not including the shooter. GVA does not parse the definition to remove any subcategory of shooting.”

Are the Gun Violence Archive’s “Mass Shootings” increasing over time? Yes. The GVA began tracking data ten years ago, in 2013. Over the past decade, “mass shootings” have increased 141%. (GVA 2023)

Attacks are Rising

As shown in the reporting by the FBI, Secret Service, and Gun Violence Archive, these types of attacks are indeed on the rise. Other research confirms these findings. The National Institute of Justice wrote, “The widespread impression that public mass shootings are getting worse is generally well-founded in the data. Over the time periods analyzed in NIJ-sponsored research projects, public mass shootings have increased in both frequency (count of incidents per year) and severity (count of victims killed or injured per year or per incident).” (NIJ 2023)

Furthermore, the government is so concerned about these types of attacks that it listed Active Shooter Incidents amongst the top five threats within FEMA’s 2023 National Preparedness Report. (FEMA 2023)

Fatalities are Rising 

The number of fatalities is rising as well. The average number of victims killed in the first five years of the FBI study was 22 per year. The last five years accounted for an average of 85.8 killed per year, a 290% increase. (FBI 2021a, 2021b, 2022, 2023)

Deadliest Attacks in U.S. and World History

The deadliest ASI in American history occurred at the Route 91 Harvest Festival (Las Vegas, Nevada – 2017). In this attack, an assailant fired over 1,000 rounds of ammunition down on a crowd of 22,000 concertgoers from his hotel room on the 32nd floor of the Mandalay Bay Resort. Fifty-eight people were killed, and well over 800 were wounded.

Although the United States is known worldwide for a high rate of gun violence, the deadliest attack by a lone gunman did not occur in America. On July 22, 2011, a man wearing an unauthorized police uniform parked a white van in the vicinity of government buildings in Olso, Norway. After the man walked away, the van exploded – killing eight, wounding nine, and destroying property at the Office of the Prime Minister.

Two hours later, the assailant, still wearing a police uniform and carrying a large case of equipment, convinced a ferry boat captain to transport him to the small island of Utøya, where 564 people were participating in a summer camp. Once he arrived on the island, he began his attack. For one hour and thirteen minutes, the police impersonator roamed the island, killing scores of campers and staff. By the time police took him into custody, he had murdered 69 children and staffers.

Americans are Concerned

Any type of violence, especially incidents that result in multiple casualties, is concerning. However, most Americans are concerned about the “active shooter” style attacks, which occur in public and make headlines. In fact, according to a survey published in the American Psychological Association, 79% of Americans said they experience stress as a result of the possibility of a mass shooting. (APA 2019)

Some of the characteristics of these style attacks are:

• Attack occurs in a public or semi-public location
• Attack is ongoing, which frequently requires intervention from the from the public or law enforcement to stop the attack
• Indication the assailant’s intent is to cause mass casualties
• Indication of advanced planning
• Indication of targeted violence

These characteristics are frequently found within the attacks reported by the FBI (Active Shooter Incident) and Secret Service (Mass Attack). However, some characteristics would not be found within many of the attacks documented by the Gun Violence Archive (Mass Shooting) – particularly in cases of gang and drug violence, urban “street violence,” and familicide.

Whether referred to as Active Shooter Incidents, Mass Attacks, or Mass Shootings, these incidents are becoming more frequent in America. This trend is deeply concerning and impacts us all, no matter our background or location.  It is essential to focus on both preventing attacks and preparing for emergencies by offering top-notch training programs to the community. This will equip individuals with the knowledge to react effectively during an attack, potentially saving lives.

References

• APA (American Psychological Association). 2019. One-Third of US Adults Say Fear of Mass Shootings Prevents Them from Going to Certain Places or Events.
• FBI. 2021a. Active Shooter Incidents 20-Year Review, 2000-2019.
• FBI. 2021b. Active Shooter Incidents in the United States in 2020.
• FBI. 2022. Active Shooter Incidents in the United States in 2021.
• FBI. 2023. Active Shooter Incidents in the United States in 2022.
• FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency). 2023. 2023 National Preparedness Report. December 2023.
• GVA (Gun Violence Archive). 2023. https://www.gunviolencearchive.org 
• NIJ (National Institute of Justice). 2023. Special Report:  Public Mass Shootings Research.
• USSS (United States Secret Service). 2023. Mass Attacks in Public Spaces: 2016-2020.

Greg Pass is the Director of Training and Research at First 30 Group, a leader in Active Shooter Safety Training. He is a retired police lieutenant from the Washington, D.C. National Capital Region with an extensive background in active shooter training and response. He also serves on the board of directors for the VTV Family Outreach Foundation, a nonprofit organization committed to assisting survivors of mass attacks across the country.